Week 17

The entire week 17 (26-30/09) was devoted to the preparation, programming and execution of the Sensitivity Analysis of the Nanex project, based on the Monte Carlo simulation, in MS Excel. The method included the calculation of the uncertainty factor for each indicator used, the corresponding error for each Line of Evidence, the application of the Monte Carlo method for 1000 runs for each group of Exposure Scenarios and the calculation of the relevant average differences in terms of values and position for each exposure scenario.

Side activities:
Calculus PhD course, SUWAMA course evaluations summary, AMORE recap, Triennial PhD plan.

Week 8 to week 16

Summer has been challenging, in many different ways. Many interesting things have been happening and breaking the rule of updating the blog at the end of each working week (or every 2nd week the latest) won't help me much in providing a good quality summary. Nevertheless, you can find below the main points of interest between week 8 (25-29/07) and week 16 (19-23/09), organised per project.

AMORE:

After the meeting with the partners from EDF, we summarised the data obtained from the experts throught the questionnaires and planned the next steps. Main points of work:

• Update of the criteria hierarchical tree, in order to take into consideration the experts' input (week 9)
• Re-design of the scales used that will be used in the 2nd expert questionnaire (weeks 8-9)
• Preparation of Intermediate report for delivery to project coordinator (week 8)
• Research on Group Decision (GD) theories for application into AMORE scheme (week 10)

TRUST:

This project is not a direct part of my work but we have been working on the development of a very interesting application in MATLAB environment for simulating aquifers for Groundwater level variation (GLV) project with the use of linear algebra and the calculating powers of the software. (weeks 8-10). 

SUWAMA:

The SUWAMA conference took place in Istanbul in September 2011. During week 14, we have been intensively working on the preparation of two presentations on:

- Multicriteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) and Decision Support Systems (DSS) 

together with Dr. Alex Zabeo, that included both theory about the abovementioned sectors as well as many examples and applications for fair understanding of the topic by the participants. They were delivered at the preparatory course, as part of the pre-conference activities.

Others:

• Participation at the seminar of Dr. Nobert (partner of KULTUrisk) regarding Ensemble Forecasts and Ensemble Prediction Systems (EPS) (week 16).
• Meeting with KULTUrisk partners (CVR, Department of Economics, Dr. Nobert-week 16).
• Introduction to NANEX project and the assessment of nanomaterials, for performing a sensitivity analysis in the near future.
• Attendance of PhD course (Calculus I) delivered by Prof. Giove (will last till mid-November).
• General study of various mathematic and other sectors:
• Matrix computations and Operations with MATLAB
• Outliers in statistics
• Group Decision Theories
• Sugeno and Choquet integrals
• Preferential Independence and Rationality

Note: I was on holiday for three weeks (11, 12 and 13). 

Week 4 to 7

Below you can find the summary of the work done between weeks 4 (27/6-1/7) and 7 (18-22/7).

AMORE project related:

• Discussions with EDF on the procedure to be followed regarding the extraction of expert knowledge (week 4)
• Summarisation of the large email/document exchange
• Postponement of the preparation of one of the questionnaires for later on.
• Meeting with Professor S. Giove (week 6) to discuss procedures used within AMORE, from mathematical point of view.

• Preparation of the first questionnaire for the extraction of expert knowledge for the tasks of the AMORE project (week 5&6)
• Construction of the scheme, based on the notes from EDF
• Construction of the questionnaire in pdf format and sending to the experts (creating experts database as well)
• Collection of answers and summarisation of the results to be used at the meeting between CVR and EDF (21 July 2011)

Others:

• Re-introduction to MATLAB and its working environment, for future use
• General study of various mathematics sectors
• Choquet integrals
• MCDA and environmental decision making
• Risk analysis using fuzzy logic
• Introduction to 'Risk perception'
• Re-introduction to Numerical analysis

Week 3

The 3rd week has been quite intensive but productive at the same time. The main points:

• Study of the book "Fuzzy Sets and Logic - Theory and Applications" (by George J. Klir and Bo Yuan) as well as papers on Fuzzy sets, logic and applications (which will eventually be referenced in the 'Related Literature' page)
• Applications of Choquet Integral in MCDA 
• Preparation of the questionnaire scheme and the questionnaire of the AMORE project, which will be used to gather the expert knowledge on the evaluation of the Lines of Evidence through an online page

Week 1 & 2

The activities of the first two weeks at the CVR included the following main points:

• Study of the topics: general mathematics, aggregation operators, general MCDA as well as trends and applications, Weights of Evidence (WoE) and Lines of Evidence (LoE) and introduction to fuzzy logic
• Introduction to the "AMORE" project (Analyses Multi-critères pour le développement d’Outils d’aide à la décision en vue de la prévention des Risques Environnementaux)
• Preparation of an extended and detailed list of aggregation operators used in MCDA (Category-Name-Formula-Description-Notes)
• Preparation of a hierarchical list (tree-form) of criteria used in the AMORE project WoE
• Extended research of scientific papers and books on: Aggregation functions/operators, Fuzzy logic, Multi Attribute Value/Utility Theory (MAVT/MAUT), Group Decision Theory, Probabilities, Sensitivity Analysis, MultiCriteria Decision Aid/Analysis

Related literature can be found on the respective section of the blog.

Welcome

Dear visitor,

I would like to welcome you to this new blog which will be dedicated to my PhD program on MCDA and Environmental Sciences at the Ca' Foscari University of Venice.

The content will include various updates on the related topics, throughout the period 2011-2014, such as:
- Scientific articles and Books read
- Related Literature (Either interesting or to be read)
- Weekly updates
- Intermediate results
- Interesting links and anything else that might pop up on the way.

Wish you a nice time browsing the content!
Panos